Is Europe headed for Recession? – Sarajevo Times

Economic experts are concerned about the risk of recession in European countries by the end of 2024.

This follows from the published results of the quarterly economic experts survey (EES) conducted by the Institute for Economic Research IFO in Munich and the Swiss Institute for Economic Policy.

In Europe, expectations are quite heterogeneous, as experts from Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands predict that the probability of a recession in their countries is 38 percent, while the probability of a recession in Serbia is between 25 and 30 percent.

The probability of a recession in Italy by the end of the year is 27 percent, in France 23 percent, in Spain 22 percent.

Looking by area, experts from Eastern Europe, South America, North America, Northern and Western Europe show the greatest concern about the recession.

According to experts, the main factors that can influence a possible recession are geopolitical events and the rise in energy prices.

Experts expect global economic growth of 2.4 percent in 2024 and its acceleration to 2.9 percent in 2025 and to 3.3 percent in 2027.

Forecasts are quite gloomy for most of the countries of Western Europe, since, according to experts, a modest growth of 0.6 percent is expected for Germany in 2024, Great Britain 0.5 percent, and Austria 0.9 percent.

Serbia expects growth between 2.5 and three percent this year, according to the report.

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